Survivor bias and the error of stability


An asteroid has by no means destroyed the Earth, due to this fact an asteroid by no means will.

This model has been concerned in scandals earlier than, and it has all the time come again stronger, so there’s nothing to fret about.

There have been know-how modifications earlier than, however we’ve all the time managed to seek out purchasers for what we do.

Survivor bias is the entice of solely contemplating the profitable entries when enthusiastic about danger. For instance, in case you have a look at the efficiency of mutual funds after ten years, most of them appear to do fairly nicely. However that’s partly as a result of those that did actually poorly didn’t make it to 10 years.

We’re fortunate sufficient to reside on a planet that hasn’t been destroyed by an asteroid. However that doesn’t imply that different planets haven’t had their life varieties extinguished–we’re merely unaware of them.

Previous efficiency isn’t any assure of the long run. Sorry.

We should always plan accordingly.



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