Demanding certainty | Seth’s Weblog
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The defenders of the established order usually demand certainty when going through choices in regards to the future.
It units up the circumstances for doing nothing, as a result of certainty by no means occurs till the long run arrives.
It’s rather more helpful to take a look at chances.
Flipping a good coin has a 50% likelihood of developing heads. That’s a dangerous wager.
Then again, there’s greater than a 95% likelihood that the ocean ranges in Miami shall be considerably increased in ten years. Is {that a} wager you wish to take the opposite facet of?
As quickly as we are able to start discussing chances, we are able to sit on the identical facet of the desk and refine our estimates and our danger profiles.
However certainty? Certainty is one other phrase for stalling.
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